Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open (Australia), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max
Croatia	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Denmark	Max
Finland	Max
France	Max
Hungary	Max
Norway	MAX
Poland	Max
Romania	Max
Slovenia	Max
Sweden	Max


	Andrey Rublev		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.64	2.28	Watch
	1.63	2.28	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.67	2.34	Watch
	1.64	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.61)	2.29 ↓ (2.33)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Andrey Rublev
58.4%

Joao Fonseca
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Andrey Rublev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.5%	0%	64.5%

Andrey Rublev - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Rublev will win (votes: 22 - 35.5%). Fonseca will win (votes: 40 - 64.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 52.6% – 76.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Rublev is ranked ATP: 8. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 113.

Rublev is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fonseca is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Fonseca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Andrey Rublev
ATP Hong Kong
02.01.25	Andrey Rublev - Fabian Marozsan	1:2 ✺
Exhibition World Tennis League
22.12.24	Andrey Rublev - Sumit Nagal	1:0 ✺
21.12.24	Andrey Rublev - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:0 ✺
20.12.24	Nick Kyrgios - Andrey Rublev	0:1 ✺
19.12.24	Andrey Rublev - Jordan Thompson	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Australian Open
08.01.25	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
08.01.25	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
07.01.25	Joao Fonseca - Federico Agustin Gomez	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.01.25	Ethan Quinn - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
02.01.25	Jacob Fearnley - Joao Fonseca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWW

Andrey Rublev - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide