Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday


	Anhelina Kalinina		Naomi Osaka

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.65
	2.4	1.69
	2.29	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.67
	2.22	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.94)	1.67 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 0.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Anhelina Kalinina
42.5%

Naomi Osaka
57.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Anhelina Kalinina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Anhelina Kalinina's form might have worsened.

Naomi Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naomi Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Anhelina Kalinina than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	8.3%	50%

Anhelina Kalinina - Naomi Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Kalinina will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Osaka will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osaka: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kalinina is ranked WTA: 110. Osaka is ranked WTA: 15.

Kalinina has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Osaka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Anhelina Kalinina
WTA Madrid
23.04.26	Marie Bouzkova - Anhelina Kalinina	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Anhelina Kalinina - Kamilla Rakhimova	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Sloane Stephens - Anhelina Kalinina	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Marina Bassols Ribera - Anhelina Kalinina	0:2 ✺
WTA Linz
09.04.26	Anhelina Kalinina - Donna Vekic	Vekic D. Walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWW?
- Naomi Osaka
WTA Madrid
23.04.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
WTA Miami
21.03.26	Talia Gibson - Naomi Osaka	2:0 ✺
WTA Indian Wells
10.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLWW

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