Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: NAPLES 3 (ITALY), CLAY - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 29 March 2024, Friday


	Arthur Gea		Pierre-Hugues Herbert

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
	2	1.72
	2	1.75	Watch
	2.08	1.8
	2.08	1.81
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.03	1.71	Watch
	2.1	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.22)	1.74 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Gea
46%

Pierre-Hugues Herbert
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Pierre-Hugues Herbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Gea that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pierre-Hugues Herbert than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pierre-Hugues Herbert could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Arthur Gea - Pierre Hugues Herbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Gea will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Herbert will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gea: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Gea is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Herbert is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gea could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Our prediction for today's Herbert to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Gea
ATP Challenger
28.03.24	Fabio Fognini - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
27.03.24	Stefano Travaglia - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
25.03.24	Arthur Gea - Laurent Lokoli	Lokoli L. retired ✺
24.03.24	Timofey Skatov - Arthur Gea	Skatov T. retired ✺
19.03.24	Arthur Gea - Enrico Dalla Valle	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WW??L
- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Challenger
28.03.24	Francesco Maestrelli - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	1:2 ✺
25.03.24	Raul Brancaccio - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	1:2 ✺
08.03.24	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
07.03.24	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Antoine Escoffier	2:1 ✺
06.03.24	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Joris De Loore	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLW?

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