Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Finland	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
France	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Germany	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Hungary	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Italy	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Poland	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Romania	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Sweden	Eurosport 2, HBO Max
Turkey	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
United-kingdom	TNT Eurosport 1, TNT Eurosport 2


	Aryna Sabalenka		Naomi Osaka

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.40	2.90
	1.4	2.85
	1.46	3.02
	1.42	2.98	Watch
	1.43	2.95
	1.5	2.64	Watch
	1.4	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.44)	2.87 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka
66.7%

Naomi Osaka
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Naomi Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.6%	0%	51.4%

Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 17 - 47.2%). Osaka will win (votes: 19 - 52.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osaka: 36.5% – 69.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22 Games - over (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Osaka is ranked WTA: 14.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Sabalenka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Sabalenka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Wimbledon
03.07.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Jelena Ostapenko	2:0 ✺
01.07.26	Aryna Sabalenka - McCartney Kessler	2:0 ✺
29.06.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Teodora Kostovic	2:0 ✺
WTA Berlin
20.06.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula	1:2 ✺
19.06.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Nikola Bartunkova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWWLW
- Naomi Osaka
WTA Wimbledon
03.07.26	Darya Kasatkina - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
01.07.26	Anastasia Gasanova - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
29.06.26	Elsa Jacquemot - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
WTA Bad Homburg
27.06.26	Karolina Muchova - Naomi Osaka	Osaka N. Retired ✺
26.06.26	Xin Yu Wang - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWW?W

Latest Head to Head

WTA Roland Garros
01.06.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:0
WTA Madrid
27.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:1
WTA Indian Wells
10.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:0
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Women
06.12.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:1
WTA US Open
03.09.18	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	1:2

Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide