Match Info
WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - Semi-finalsDate: 10 September 2026, ThursdayLocation: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York, NY)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Argentina | ESPN 2, ESPN 3 |
 Australia | 9Gem |
 Austria | Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Brazil | ESPN 2 |
 Colombia | ESPN 3 |
 Czech-republic | HBO Max |
 Denmark | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 Finland | Eurosport 1 |
 France | Eurosport 2 |
 Germany | Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event |
 Greece | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 Hungary | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 Netherlands | ESPN 2 |
 Peru | ESPN 2, ESPN 3 |
 Poland | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 Sweden | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 Turkey | Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2 |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports Tennis |
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Aryna Sabalenka |
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Jessica Pegula |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.50 |
|
2.63 |
 Watch |
 |
1.53 |
|
2.54 |
|
 |
1.53 |
|
2.60 |
|
 |
1.53 |
|
2.73 |
|
 |
1.5 |
|
2.66 |
Watch |
 |
1.51 |
|
2.65 |
|
 |
1.46 |
|
2.77 |
Watch |
 |
1.51 |
|
2.60 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.51 ↓
(1.62) |
|
2.65 ↑
(2.27) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 22.50
- The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Aryna Sabalenka
63.7% | Jessica Pegula
36.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aryna Sabalenka's performance.Jessica Pegula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jessica Pegula might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jessica Pegula than the current prediction. (+2.5%)Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Predictions
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Pegula will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 42% – 87.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 2 - 50%). Pegula (votes: 2 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 30.5 Games - over (5.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 Sets - over (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
New Consensus by Tipsters:- 1X2 - Aryna Sabalenka (1.52) (votes: 91%) ⭐ Best Value.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0 
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Preview
Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Pegula is ranked WTA: 3.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 3.Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak. Sabalenka might have a minor edge in this game.We predict that Sabalenka will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:10. (average 1.6:0.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| WTA Berlin | | | 20.06.26 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 1:2 | | WTA Finals | | | 04.11.25 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 2:1 | | WTA Wuhan | | | 11.10.25 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 1:2 | | WTA US Open | | | 04.09.25 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 2:1 | | WTA Miami | | | 29.03.25 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 2:0 | | WTA US Open | | | 07.09.24 | Jessica Pegula - Aryna Sabalenka | 0:2 | | WTA Cincinnati | | | 19.08.24 | Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula | 2:0 |
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