Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Aryna Sabalenka		Peyton Stearns

	1	2
	1.04	13	Watch
	1.03	12
	1.05	14.76
	1.04	11.42	Watch
	1.05	10
	1.03	16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 (1.04)	12.86 ↑ (10.8)

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka
92.5%

Peyton Stearns
7.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

91.2%

8.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Peyton Stearns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6.5 Games - Stearns (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Stearns (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Stearns is ranked WTA: 43.

Sabalenka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Stearns has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stearns may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sabalenka is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sabalenka won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Aryna Sabalenka - the odds 1.04 are the expected chance of winning is 91.22%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Miami
28.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Cori Gauff	2:1 ✺
26.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Qinwen Zheng	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Caty McNally	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWW
- Peyton Stearns
WTA Madrid
21.04.26	Peyton Stearns - Lois Boisson	2:0 ✺
WTA Charleston
02.04.26	Peyton Stearns - McCartney Kessler	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Peyton Stearns - Ashlyn Krueger	2:0 ✺
31.03.26	Mayar Sherif - Peyton Stearns	Canceled ✺
WTA Miami
20.03.26	Peyton Stearns - Jaqueline Adina Cristian	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

WTA Madrid
29.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns	2:0
WTA Indian Wells
09.03.24	Peyton Stearns - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2

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