Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday


	Aryna Sabalenka		Hailey Baptiste

	1	2
	1.1	7	Watch
	1.09	6.5
	1.13	7.66
	1.12	6.82	Watch
	1.08	7.5
	1.12	6.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↑ (1.02)	7 ↓ (13.67)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aryna Sabalenka
86.4%

Hailey Baptiste
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

93.1%

6.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aryna Sabalenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aryna Sabalenka's form might have worsened.

Hailey Baptiste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hailey Baptiste's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Sabalenka will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Baptiste will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sabalenka: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +6.5 Games - Baptiste (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sabalenka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baptiste (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sabalenka is ranked WTA: 1. Baptiste is ranked WTA: 32.

Sabalenka has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Baptiste is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Baptiste may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sabalenka is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sabalenka won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Aryna Sabalenka - the odds 1.02 are the expected chance of winning is 93.06%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Madrid
27.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Jaqueline Adina Cristian	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Peyton Stearns	2:0 ✺
WTA Miami
28.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Cori Gauff	2:1 ✺
26.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWW
- Hailey Baptiste
WTA Madrid
27.04.26	Belinda Bencic - Hailey Baptiste	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jasmine Paolini	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Kaitlin Quevedo	2:0 ✺
WTA Rouen
16.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Iryna Shymanovich	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jessika Ponchet	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
25.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste	2:0

Aryna Sabalenka - Hailey Baptiste: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide