Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lille, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday


	August Holmgren		Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.35	1.53
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.58	1.54
	2.72	1.41	Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.42	1.5	Watch
	2.54	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (1.93)	1.5 ↓ (1.79)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
37.4%

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that August Holmgren's form might have worsened.

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for August Holmgren, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

August Holmgren - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gueymard Wayenburg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 199. Gueymard Wayenburg is ranked ATP: 263.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Gueymard Wayenburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Matej Dodig - August Holmgren	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Dino Prizmic - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.01.26	Alexis Galarneau - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	August Holmgren - Adria Soriano Barrera	2:0 ✺
27.01.26	August Holmgren - Zsombor Piros	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 ?LLW?
- Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
ATP Challenger
11.02.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Benjamin Hassan	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Luca Van Assche - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
29.01.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
28.01.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Laurent Lokoli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWWW

August Holmgren - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide