Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zagreb, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday


	Matej Dodig		August Holmgren

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.7	Watch
	2.07	1.82
	2.01	1.73	Watch
	2	1.73
	1.95	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.35)	1.74 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
46.6%

August Holmgren
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

60.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matej Dodig's performance.

August Holmgren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and August Holmgren might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matej Dodig that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that August Holmgren could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Matej Dodig - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Holmgren will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dodig: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 201. Holmgren is ranked ATP: 167.

Dodig is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Holmgren has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dodig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Holmgren is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Dodig won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

August Holmgren - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 60.8%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
27.03.26	Matej Dodig - Mili Poljicak	Dodig M. Retired ✺
25.03.26	Matej Dodig - Sandro Kopp	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Matej Dodig - Christian Langmo	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Matej Dodig - Kilian Feldbausch	Canceled ✺
21.03.26	Matej Dodig - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 ?WW?L
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
09.05.26	Gustavo Heide - August Holmgren	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	August Holmgren - Max Schoenhaus	2:1 ✺
06.05.26	August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Alex Barrena - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	August Holmgren - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Matej Dodig - August Holmgren	Canceled

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