Match Info

Date: 24 August 2021, Tuesday


	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia		Alexei Popyrin

	1	2
	1.66	2.2
	1.75	2.05
	1.74	2.1	Watch
	1.71	2.06
	1.79	2.12
	1.72	2.1	Watch
	1.75	2.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.69)	2.11 ↓ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
54.9%

Alexei Popyrin
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Alexei Popyrin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexei Popyrin than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Alexei Popyrin Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 30 - 71.4%). Popyrin will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 57.7% – 85.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Popyrin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.21	Lorenzo Sonego - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:0 ✺
15.08.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Ilya Ivashka	2:0 ✺
14.08.21	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
27.07.21	Alexander Erler - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	2:1 ✺
26.07.21	Jiri Vesely - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWL?
- Alexei Popyrin
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.21	Steve Johnson - Alexei Popyrin	0:2 ✺
22.08.21	Alexei Popyrin - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
21.08.21	Alexei Popyrin - Mukund Sasikumar	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.21	Corentin Moutet - Alexei Popyrin	2:1 ✺
14.08.21	Jack Sock - Alexei Popyrin	Sock J. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWL?

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