Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Hamburg, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday


	Christoph Negritu		Mathys Erhard

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.42	2.6
	1.53	2.56
	1.84	1.83	Watch
	1.49	2.52	Watch
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.83)	2.4 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christoph Negritu
60.8%

Mathys Erhard
39.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christoph Negritu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christoph Negritu's performance.

Mathys Erhard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mathys Erhard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christoph Negritu than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christoph Negritu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathys Erhard than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mathys Erhard could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Christoph Negritu - Mathys Erhard Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Negritu will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Erhard will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Negritu is ranked ATP: 311. Erhard is ranked ATP: 320.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Erhard may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Negritu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Mathys Erhard - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christoph Negritu
ATP Challenger
13.10.25	Christoph Negritu - Michele Ribecai	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Christoph Negritu - Leonardo Mazzucchelli	2:0
10.10.25	Luka Mikrut - Christoph Negritu	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Filip Cristian Jianu - Christoph Negritu	0:2 ✺
07.10.25	Christoph Negritu - Vit Kopriva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWW
- Mathys Erhard
ITF Tournaments
18.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Etienne Donnet	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Jack Loge	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Mathys Erhard - Alaa Trifi	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Igor Kudriashov - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
08.10.25	Nazim Makhlouf - Mathys Erhard	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
24.06.25	Mathys Erhard - Christoph Negritu	1:2
ITF Tournaments
28.10.22	Mathys Erhard - Christoph Negritu	2:1

Christoph Negritu - Mathys Erhard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide