Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday


	Christoph Negritu		Michael Vrbensky

	1	2
			Watch
	1.54	2.32
	1.6	2.39
	1.52	2.36	Watch
	1.62	2.2
	1.46	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.65)	2.36 ↑ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christoph Negritu
60.4%

Michael Vrbensky
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christoph Negritu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Michael Vrbensky has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christoph Negritu than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christoph Negritu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Vrbensky than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Vrbensky could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Christoph Negritu - Michael Vrbensky Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Negritu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Christoph Negritu will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Negritu is ranked ATP: 370. Vrbensky is ranked ATP: 567.

Negritu is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vrbensky has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Negritu will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christoph Negritu
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Christoph Negritu - Eneko Rios Perez	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Tom Gentzsch - Christoph Negritu	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Christoph Negritu - Dan Added	2:1 ✺
04.02.26	Christoph Negritu - Tibo Colson	2:0 ✺
02.02.26	Michael Geerts - Christoph Negritu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLWWW
- Michael Vrbensky
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Andrew Paulson - Michael Vrbensky	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Michael Vrbensky - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Matej Dodig - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Michael Vrbensky - Robin Bertrand	2:0 ✺
26.01.26	Michael Vrbensky - Inaki Montes De La Torre	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLLWL

Christoph Negritu - Michael Vrbensky: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide