Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday


	Colton Smith		Flavio Cobolli

	1	2
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.18	1.69	Watch
	2.22	1.72
	2.16	1.68	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.15	1.71	Watch
	2.18	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.58)	1.69 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colton Smith
43.6%

Flavio Cobolli
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colton Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colton Smith's performance.

Flavio Cobolli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Flavio Cobolli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colton Smith than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Colton Smith that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flavio Cobolli than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Flavio Cobolli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Colton Smith - Flavio Cobolli Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Cobolli will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smith: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 261. Cobolli is ranked ATP: 40.

Smith is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cobolli has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cobolli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Cobolli will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colton Smith
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.25	Colton Smith - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
03.03.25	Fabio Fognini - Colton Smith	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.02.25	Kamil Majchrzak - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Colton Smith	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Colton Smith - Jeffrey John Wolf	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWLWW
- Flavio Cobolli
ATP Acapulco
24.02.25	Flavio Cobolli - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
ATP Rotterdam
03.02.25	Flavio Cobolli - Hubert Hurkacz	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
30.01.25	Jesper De Jong - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Flavio Cobolli	3:1 ✺
ATP Auckland
06.01.25	Luca Nardi - Flavio Cobolli	Cobolli F. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLL?

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