Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: ESTORIL (PORTUGAL), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Constant Lestienne		Ben Shelton

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.2	1.65
	2.2	1.65
	2.27	1.63
	2.46	1.61
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.59	1.5	Watch
	2.36	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.01)	1.6 ↓ (1.81)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Constant Lestienne
40.6%

Ben Shelton
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Constant Lestienne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Constant Lestienne's form might have worsened.

Ben Shelton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ben Shelton's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Constant Lestienne than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Constant Lestienne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ben Shelton than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ben Shelton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	0%	31.2%

Constant Lestienne - Ben Shelton Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Lestienne will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Shelton will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lestienne: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Lestienne is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Shelton is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lestienne could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Constant Lestienne
ATP Miami
22.03.23	Fabio Fognini - Constant Lestienne	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
15.03.23	Zhizhen Zhang - Constant Lestienne	Canceled ✺
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.23	Emil Ruusuvuori - Constant Lestienne	Lestienne C. retired ✺
ATP Dubai
27.02.23	Tallon Griekspoor - Constant Lestienne	2:1 ✺
ATP Doha
20.02.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Constant Lestienne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 ???LL
- Ben Shelton
ATP Miami
25.03.23	Adrian Mannarino - Ben Shelton	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.23	Taylor Harry Fritz - Ben Shelton	2:1 ✺
09.03.23	Ben Shelton - Fabio Fognini	2:0 ✺
ATP Acapulco
27.02.23	Ben Shelton - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	1:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
14.02.23	Ben Shelton - Marcos Giron	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL

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