Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Olbia, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Olbia 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Daniel Rincon		Francesco Maestrelli

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Daniel Rincon
38.6%

Francesco Maestrelli
61.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.5%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

63.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniel Rincon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Rincon than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Rincon is ranked ATP: 203. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 153.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Rincon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Maestrelli might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rincon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniel Rincon
ATP Challenger
07.10.25	Henri Squire - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
29.09.25	Dusan Lajovic - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
19.09.25	Franco Agamenone - Daniel Rincon	2:0 ✺
18.09.25	Jack Loge - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Nicholas David Ionel - Daniel Rincon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
29.09.25	Facundo Bagnis - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1 ✺
25.09.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Daniel Dutra da Silva - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco	1:2 ✺
17.09.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLW

ATP Challenger
15.01.24	Daniel Rincon - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2

Daniel Rincon - Francesco Maestrelli