Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shymkent, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday


	Daniil Ostapenkov		Samuele Pieri

	1	2
	2.3	1.55
	2.37	1.64
	1.48	2.51	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.23	1.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.62)	1.77 ↑ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Daniil Ostapenkov
45.4%

Samuele Pieri
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

69.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Daniil Ostapenkov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Daniil Ostapenkov's performance.

Samuele Pieri has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Samuele Pieri might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniil Ostapenkov than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Daniil Ostapenkov that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samuele Pieri than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Samuele Pieri could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Daniil Ostapenkov - Samuele Pieri Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ostapenkov is ranked ATP: 675. Pieri is ranked ATP: 472.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ostapenkov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Pieri is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Daniil Ostapenkov
ATP Challenger
20.04.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Daniil Ostapenkov	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Maxim Shin - Daniil Ostapenkov	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Sergey Fomin	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Daniil Ostapenkov - Yuta Kikuchi	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Ryuki Matsuda - Daniil Ostapenkov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWL
- Samuele Pieri
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Samuele Pieri - Mika Petkovic	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Samuele Pieri	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.03.26	Andrew Paulson - Samuele Pieri	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Samuele Pieri - Jesper De Jong	1:2 ✺
23.03.26	Denis Yevseyev - Samuele Pieri	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLLW

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