Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: UMAG (CROATIA), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 24 July 2023, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: UMAG (CROATIA) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bulgaria	19:15	Max Sport 3
France	18:15	beIN Sports Max
Portugal	17:15	Sport TV5


	Dominic Thiem		Facundo Bagnis

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.48	2.6
	1.5	2.6
	1.53	2.6
	1.49	2.75
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.47	2.68	Watch
	1.49	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.53)	2.65 ↑ (2.51)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dominic Thiem
64.1%

Facundo Bagnis
35.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.1%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dominic Thiem has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Facundo Bagnis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dominic Thiem than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Facundo Bagnis than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.9%	0%	6.1%

Dominic Thiem - Facundo Bagnis Predictions

Users Predictions: Dominic Thiem will win (31 of 33 users predict this - 93.94%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.8% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Thiem is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bagnis is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bagnis could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Thiem will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Bagnis to win the game is with odds 2.65.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Thiem won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dominic Thiem
ATP Gstaad
19.07.23	Dominic Thiem - Hamad Medjedovic	1:2 ✺
17.07.23	Alexandre Muller - Dominic Thiem	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.23	Dominic Thiem - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:3 ✺
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
01.07.23	Casper Ruud - Dominic Thiem	Canceled ✺
ATP Halle
20.06.23	Alexander Zverev - Dominic Thiem	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWL?L
- Facundo Bagnis
ATP Umag
23.07.23	Timofey Skatov - Facundo Bagnis	1:2 ✺
22.07.23	Francesco Maestrelli - Facundo Bagnis	0:2 ✺
ATP Gstaad
20.07.23	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Facundo Bagnis	2:0 ✺
18.07.23	Arthur Rinderknech - Facundo Bagnis	1:2 ✺
16.07.23	Facundo Bagnis - Geoffrey Blancaneaux	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.07.22	Facundo Bagnis - Dominic Thiem	2:1

Dominic Thiem - Facundo Bagnis