Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Doha (Qatar), hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 February 2025, Wednesday


	Ekaterina Alexandrova		Elise Mertens

	1	2
			Watch
	2.35	1.57
			Watch
	2.44	1.61
			Watch
	2.38	1.57
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (1.74)	1.58 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova
39.8%

Elise Mertens
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ekaterina Alexandrova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ekaterina Alexandrova's form might have worsened.

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elise Mertens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ekaterina Alexandrova than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ekaterina Alexandrova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elise Mertens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	0%	30.8%

Ekaterina Alexandrova - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Alexandrova will win (votes: 18 - 69.2%). Mertens will win (votes: 8 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alexandrova: 51.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alexandrova is ranked WTA: 26. Mertens is ranked WTA: 32.

Alexandrova is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Mertens in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Mertens will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Mertens to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Alexandrova won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ekaterina Alexandrova
WTA Doha
11.02.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Ekaterina Alexandrova	1:2 ✺
09.02.25	Emma Raducanu - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2 ✺
WTA Abu Dhabi
04.02.25	Leylah Annie Fernandez - Ekaterina Alexandrova	Canceled ✺
WTA Linz
02.02.25	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Dayana Yastremska	2:1 ✺
01.02.25	Karolina Muchova - Ekaterina Alexandrova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WW?WW
- Elise Mertens
WTA Doha
11.02.25	Elise Mertens - Cristina Bucsa	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Elise Mertens - Clara Tauson	Tauson C. retired ✺
WTA Singapore
02.02.25	Ann Li - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
01.02.25	Xin Yu Wang - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
31.01.25	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 W?WWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Olympic Games
24.07.21	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Elise Mertens	2:1
WTA Linz
14.11.20	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Elise Mertens	1:2
WTA Hertogenbosch
11.06.19	Ekaterina Alexandrova - Elise Mertens	2:0

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