Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday


	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano		Elise Mertens

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.45
	2.75	1.46
	2.8	1.48
	2.73	1.45	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.71	1.47	Watch
	2.75	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.47)	1.46 ↓ (1.55)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
34.7%

Elise Mertens
65.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Elise Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maria Camila Osorio Serrano than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Osorio Serrano will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Mertens will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mertens: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Osorio Serrano (votes: 3 - 60%). Mertens (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 Sets - Mertens (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Osorio Serrano (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4 Games - Osorio Serrano (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Osorio Serrano (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Mertens (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Osorio Serrano is ranked WTA: 51. Mertens is ranked WTA: 26.

Osorio Serrano in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Mertens is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mertens could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mertens will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Osorio Serrano won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:4 (average 0:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
WTA Madrid
22.04.25	Emiliana Arango - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
WTA Bogota
06.04.25	Katarzyna Kawa - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	Julia Riera - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
04.04.25	Tatjana Maria - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
03.04.25	Emina Bektas - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWWW
- Elise Mertens
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.25	Aryna Sabalenka - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Elise Mertens - Diana Shnaider	2:0 ✺
14.04.25	Aliaksandra Sasnovich - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
WTA Charleston
03.04.25	Qinwen Zheng - Elise Mertens	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Varvara Gracheva - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Singapore
31.01.25	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Roland Garros
31.05.23	Elise Mertens - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	2:0
WTA Wimbledon
27.06.22	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Elise Mertens	Osorio C. retired

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