Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 2 May 2024, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2
France	beIN Sports
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Elena Rybakina		Aryna Sabalenka

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	2	1.83
	1.95	1.85	Watch
	1.78	2.13
	2.05	1.86
	1.91	1.91
	2	1.81	Watch
	2.03	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.77)	1.88 ↓ (2.05)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elena Rybakina
48.9%

Aryna Sabalenka
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elena Rybakina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Aryna Sabalenka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elena Rybakina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aryna Sabalenka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.6%	0%	85.4%

Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka Predictions

Users Predictions: Aryna Sabalenka will win (41 of 48 users predict this - 85.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.44% – 95.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rybakina won 3.

Rybakina in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Sabalenka is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Rybakina won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 13-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elena Rybakina
WTA Madrid
01.05.24	Yulia Putintseva - Elena Rybakina	1:2 ✺
29.04.24	Sara Bejlek - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
28.04.24	Mayar Sherif - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
26.04.24	Lucia Bronzetti - Elena Rybakina	0:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
21.04.24	Elena Rybakina - Marta Kostyuk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWWW
- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Madrid
01.05.24	Mirra Andreeva - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2 ✺
29.04.24	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
28.04.24	Robin Montgomery - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
26.04.24	Magda Linette - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
WTA Stuttgart
19.04.24	Marketa Vondrousova - Aryna Sabalenka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Brisbane
06.01.24	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	0:2
Exhibition World Tennis League Women
22.12.23	Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka	0:1
WTA Finals
03.11.23	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	2:1
WTA Beijing
06.10.23	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
19.03.23	Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka	2:0
WTA Australian Open
28.01.23	Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2
Exhibition World Tennis League Women
20.12.22	Aryna Sabalenka - Elena Rybakina	1:2

Elena Rybakina - Aryna Sabalenka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide