Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 16 May 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rome (Italy) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	05:45	beIN Sports
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:45	SportKlub
Brazil	16:45	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:45	SportKlub
Czech Republic	21:45	CANAL+ Sport 2
France	21:45	beIN Sports
Germany	21:45	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	22:45	Nova Sports
Poland	21:45	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	22:45	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	21:45	SportKlub
Slovenia	21:45	SportKlub
Ukraine	22:45	Setanta Sports


	Danielle Collins		Aryna Sabalenka

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.4	1.57
	2.4	1.58	Watch
	2.45	1.62
	2.45	1.62
	2.38	1.57
	2.38	1.59	Watch
	2.47	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.77)	1.59 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danielle Collins
39.7%

Aryna Sabalenka
60.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.1%

66.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

67.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danielle Collins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Danielle Collins's performance.

Aryna Sabalenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aryna Sabalenka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danielle Collins than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Danielle Collins that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aryna Sabalenka than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aryna Sabalenka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Collins will win (votes: 32 - 62.7%). Sabalenka will win (votes: 19 - 37.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Collins: 49.4% – 76%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Right away both players are in a satisfying form.

Sabalenka could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sabalenka will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Sabalenka to win the game is with odds 1.61.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Collins won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 3-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danielle Collins
WTA Roma
15.05.24	Victoria Azarenka - Danielle Collins	0:2 ✺
13.05.24	Danielle Collins - Irina-Camelia Begu	2:0 ✺
12.05.24	Danielle Collins - Caroline Garcia	2:0 ✺
10.05.24	Danielle Collins - Anna Blinkova	Blinkova A. retired ✺
WTA Madrid
29.04.24	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWW?L
- Aryna Sabalenka
WTA Roma
15.05.24	Jelena Ostapenko - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2 ✺
13.05.24	Elina Svitolina - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
12.05.24	Dayana Yastremska - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2 ✺
10.05.24	Katie Volynets - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2 ✺
WTA Madrid
04.05.24	Iga Swiatek - Aryna Sabalenka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Madrid
29.04.24	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2
WTA US Open
05.09.22	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2
03.09.21	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	0:2
WTA Wuhan
23.09.19	Aryna Sabalenka - Danielle Collins	2:0
WTA US Open
28.08.18	Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka	1:2

Danielle Collins - Aryna Sabalenka