Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Rod Laver Arena (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Australia	Stan Sport
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+
Usa	ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Elena Rybakina		Iga Swiatek

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.83	1.95
	1.77	2.06	Watch
	1.78	2.16
	1.76	2.11	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.8	2.04	Watch
	1.81	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.96)	2.05 ↑ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elena Rybakina
53.5%

Iga Swiatek
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elena Rybakina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Iga Swiatek has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elena Rybakina than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elena Rybakina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iga Swiatek than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Iga Swiatek could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.4%	0%	40.6%

Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Rybakina will win (votes: 19 - 59.4%). Swiatek will win (votes: 13 - 40.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rybakina: 42.4% – 76.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Rybakina (votes: 13 - 65%). Swiatek (votes: 7 - 35%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Rybakina (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Rybakina (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Swiatek (votes: 7 - 31.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Rybakina is ranked WTA: 5. Swiatek is ranked WTA: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 1.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Rybakina won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 0.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elena Rybakina
WTA Australian Open
26.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Tereza Valentova	2:0 ✺
22.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Varvara Gracheva	2:0 ✺
19.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Kaja Juvan	2:0 ✺
WTA Brisbane
08.01.26	Elena Rybakina - Karolina Muchova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWWWL
- Iga Swiatek
WTA Australian Open
26.01.26	Maddison Inglis - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Anna Kalinskaya - Iga Swiatek	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Marie Bouzkova - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
19.01.26	Yue Yuan - Iga Swiatek	0:2 ✺
WTA United Cup
11.01.26	Iga Swiatek - Belinda Bencic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Women
26.12.25	Iga Swiatek - Elena Rybakina	2:0
WTA Finals
03.11.25	Iga Swiatek - Elena Rybakina	1:2
WTA Cincinnati
17.08.25	Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek	0:2
WTA Roland Garros
01.06.25	Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek	1:2
WTA Doha
13.02.25	Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek	0:2
WTA United Cup
03.01.25	Elena Rybakina - Iga Swiatek	0:2
WTA Stuttgart
20.04.24	Iga Swiatek - Elena Rybakina	1:2

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