What is the expert prediction for Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, August 07, 2026)

Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Elise Mertens		Naomi Osaka

	1	2
	3.00	1.40	Watch
	2.90	1.40
	3.05	1.38	Watch
	3.20	1.43
	3.17	1.36	Watch
	3.10	1.40
	3.08	1.40	Watch
	3.05	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↑ (2.75)	1.4 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elise Mertens
31.3%

Naomi Osaka
68.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

68.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elise Mertens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Naomi Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elise Mertens than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

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Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mertens is ranked WTA: 24. Osaka is ranked WTA: 13.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mertens won 2.

Mertens is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Osaka has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Osaka is considered a favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Mertens won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.7:1.2).

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Last Results with these Odds

Naomi Osaka - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.48%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elise Mertens
WTA Toronto
05.08.26	Elise Mertens - Anna Bondar	2:1 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
08.07.26	Linda Noskova - Elise Mertens	2:0 ✺
06.07.26	Marie Bouzkova - Elise Mertens	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Elise Mertens - Elena Rybakina	2:0 ✺
02.07.26	Elise Mertens - Maria Timofeeva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW
- Naomi Osaka
WTA Toronto
05.08.26	Panna Udvardy - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
WTA Washington
01.08.26	Naomi Osaka - Alexandra Eala	0:2 ✺
31.07.26	Elisabaetta Cocciaretto - Naomi Osaka	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Ashlyn Krueger - Naomi Osaka	Krueger A. Retired ✺
WTA Wimbledon
07.07.26	Naomi Osaka - Karolina Muchova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLW?L

Latest Head to Head

WTA Bad Homburg
23.06.26	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	2:0
WTA Toronto
08.08.24	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Hertogenbosch
11.06.24	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2
WTA Indian Wells
11.03.24	Naomi Osaka - Elise Mertens	0:2
WTA Miami
29.03.21	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2
WTA Melbourne Gippsland Trophy
05.02.21	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	Mertens E. walkover
WTA Cincinnati
28.08.20	Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka	0:2

Elise Mertens - Naomi Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide