Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shymkent, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday


	Ergi Kirkin		Gilles Arnaud Bailly

	1	2
	2.13	1.64
	2.29	1.67
	2.21	1.59	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.16	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.7)	1.63 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ergi Kirkin
42.6%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
57.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

70.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ergi Kirkin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ergi Kirkin's performance.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gilles Arnaud Bailly might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ergi Kirkin than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ergi Kirkin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gilles Arnaud Bailly could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ergi Kirkin - Gilles Arnaud Bailly Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kirkin is ranked ATP: 589. Bailly is ranked ATP: 208.

Kirkin is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bailly has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bailly may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bailly will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Ergi Kirkin - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.15%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ergi Kirkin
ATP Challenger
20.04.26	Ergi Kirkin - Kai Wehnelt	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ergi Kirkin - Yannik Kelm	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.04.26	Max Houkes - Ergi Kirkin	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Niels McDonald - Ergi Kirkin	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Giannicola Misasi - Ergi Kirkin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW
- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ITF Tournaments
07.04.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Dakotah Bobo	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.04.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Kimmer Coppejans	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Roman Safiullin - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Kimmer Coppejans - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW

Ergi Kirkin - Gilles Arnaud Bailly: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide