Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Murcia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday


	Gilles Arnaud Bailly		Alejandro Moro Canas

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.27	1.56	Watch
	2.42	1.61
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.38	1.53
	2.3	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.09)	1.57 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gilles Arnaud Bailly
40.4%

Alejandro Moro Canas
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

55.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gilles Arnaud Bailly has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Alejandro Moro Canas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gilles Arnaud Bailly than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gilles Arnaud Bailly, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alejandro Moro Canas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Alejandro Moro Canas Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Bailly will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Moro Canas will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Moro Canas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bailly is ranked ATP: 212. Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 239.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Moro Canas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Moro Canas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bailly won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Moro Canas - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.88%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gilles Arnaud Bailly
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Saba Purtseladze	2:1 ✺
10.03.26	Antoine Ghibaudo - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	2:1 ✺
27.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Stefanos Sakellaridis	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLW
- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
17.03.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
02.03.26	Menelaos Efstathiou - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:1 ✺
26.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Dominic Stephan Stricker	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Nerman Fatic - Alejandro Moro Canas	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
30.08.25	Alejandro Moro Canas - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2

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