Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Mallorca, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mallorca 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Eva Vedder		Francesca Curmi

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.25	1.60
	2.30	1.58
	2.32	1.54	Watch
	2.25	1.62
	2.31	1.62	Watch
	2.31	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.94)	1.58 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eva Vedder
40.6%

Francesca Curmi
59.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.5%

68.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

69.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eva Vedder has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Eva Vedder's performance.

Francesca Curmi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Francesca Curmi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eva Vedder than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Eva Vedder that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesca Curmi than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francesca Curmi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Eva Vedder - Francesca Curmi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Vedder is ranked WTA: 201., and Curmi is ranked WTA: 236..

Vedder has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Curmi have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Curmi may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Curmi is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Vedder has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Eva Vedder
ITF Tournaments
04.10.26	Lisa Pigato - Eva Vedder	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Eva Vedder - Margaux Rouvroy	2:0 ✺
02.10.26	Francisca Jorge - Eva Vedder	1:2 ✺
01.10.26	Harmony Tan - Eva Vedder	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Caroline Werner - Eva Vedder	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWWWW
- Francesca Curmi
ITF Tournaments
09.10.26	Francesca Curmi - Alisa Oktiabreva	0:2 ✺
08.10.26	Francesca Curmi - Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	2:0 ✺
06.10.26	Francesca Curmi - Maayan Laron	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur - Francesca Curmi	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Francesca Curmi - Veronika Erjavec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
10.09.24	Eva Vedder - Francesca Curmi	2:0

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesca Curmi
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Francesca Curmi - Clara Vlasselaer	✺

Eva Vedder - Francesca Curmi