Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday


	Fajing Sun		Ryan Peniston

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3	1.34	Watch
	3.05	1.3	Watch
	3.31	1.36
	3.79	1.26	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	3.1	1.34	Watch
	3.05	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.37)	1.32 ↓ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fajing Sun
29.3%

Ryan Peniston
70.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fajing Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fajing Sun's form might have worsened.

Ryan Peniston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ryan Peniston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fajing Sun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryan Peniston than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ryan Peniston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Fajing Sun - Ryan Peniston Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Sun will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Peniston will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5 Games - Peniston (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Peniston (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sun is ranked ATP: 289. Peniston is ranked ATP: 310.

Sun has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Peniston is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Peniston may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Peniston is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Peniston will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
07.05.25	Fajing Sun - Antoine Escoffier	2:1 ✺
05.05.25	Li Tu - Fajing Sun	0:2 ✺
29.04.25	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Kasidit Samrej - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Fajing Sun - Mats Rosenkranz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWLLL
- Ryan Peniston
ATP Challenger
07.05.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Ryan Peniston	1:2 ✺
05.05.25	Ryan Peniston - James McCabe	McCabe J. retired ✺
29.04.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Ryan Peniston	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Ryan Peniston - Daniel Cukierman	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Ryan Peniston - Zhan Zheng	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 W?LWW

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