Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning 3, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Fajing Sun		Alibek Kachmazov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.38	1.55
	2.47	1.47	Watch
	2.20	1.64
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.29	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.84)	1.57 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fajing Sun
40.6%

Alibek Kachmazov
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fajing Sun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fajing Sun's form might have worsened.

Alibek Kachmazov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alibek Kachmazov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fajing Sun than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fajing Sun, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alibek Kachmazov than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alibek Kachmazov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sun is ranked ATP: 303., and Kachmazov is ranked ATP: 525..

In recent outings, Sun has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Kachmazov is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Sun could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Sun has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 0:4 (averaging 0:2 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alibek Kachmazov - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fajing Sun
ATP Challenger
08.10.26	Fajing Sun - Kasidit Samrej	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Fajing Sun - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
29.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Fajing Sun	2:1 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
24.09.26	Fajing Sun - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
23.09.26	Bernard Tomic - Fajing Sun	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 W?LLW
- Alibek Kachmazov
ATP Challenger
08.10.26	Evan Zhu - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2 ✺
06.10.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Charles Broom	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Grigoriy Lomakin	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Yan Lang Chen	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.09.26	Alibek Kachmazov - Kuan-Shou Chen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.04.25	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2
16.10.23	Fajing Sun - Alibek Kachmazov	0:2

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