Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 September 2026, Wednesday


	Federica Urgesi		Lia Karatancheva

	1	2
			Watch
	1.48	2.40
	1.5	2.4
	1.5	2.62
	1.48	2.44	Watch
	1.48	2.55
	1.48	2.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.59)	2.47 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federica Urgesi
62.4%

Lia Karatancheva
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federica Urgesi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Lia Karatancheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Federica Urgesi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lia Karatancheva than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lia Karatancheva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Federica Urgesi - Lia Karatancheva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Urgesi is ranked WTA: 274. Karatancheva is ranked WTA: 379.

Both players are struggling and far from their best.

Karatancheva may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Urgesi could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ITF Tournaments
27.08.26	Federica Urgesi - Justina Mikulskyte	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Dalila Jakupovic - Federica Urgesi	Jakupovic D. Retired ✺
05.08.26	Federica Urgesi - Martha Matoula	0:2 ✺
04.08.26	Federica Urgesi - Amelie Van Impe	2:1 ✺
30.07.26	Barbora Palicova - Federica Urgesi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 L?LWL
- Lia Karatancheva
ITF Tournaments
26.08.26	Lia Karatancheva - Ksenia Zaytseva	1:2 ✺
11.08.26	Lia Karatancheva - Lisa Zaar	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.08.26	Zuzanna Pawlikowska - Lia Karatancheva	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Lia Karatancheva - Nika Hurkacz	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.07.26	Lia Karatancheva - Beatrice Ricci	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Federica Urgesi - Lia Karatancheva: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide