Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday


	Federica Urgesi		Maria Lourdes Carle

	1	2
			Watch
	1.80	1.87
	1.9	1.79
	1.81	2.02
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.77	2.01
	1.8	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.64)	1.9 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federica Urgesi
51%

Maria Lourdes Carle
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federica Urgesi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Maria Lourdes Carle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Federica Urgesi - Maria Lourdes Carle Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Urgesi is ranked WTA: 274. Carle is ranked WTA: 220.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Urgesi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Urgesi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Maria Lourdes Carle - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.32%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ITF Tournaments
03.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Oceane Babel	2:0 ✺
02.09.26	Federica Urgesi - Lia Karatancheva	2:0 ✺
27.08.26	Federica Urgesi - Justina Mikulskyte	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Dalila Jakupovic - Federica Urgesi	Jakupovic D. Retired ✺
05.08.26	Federica Urgesi - Martha Matoula	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWL?L
- Maria Lourdes Carle
ITF Tournaments
03.09.26	Valeriya Strakhova - Maria Lourdes Carle	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Mathilde Lollia - Maria Lourdes Carle	1:2 ✺
WTA US Open
25.08.26	Vendula Valdmannova - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.07.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Emma Lene	1:2 ✺
WTA Hamburg
22.07.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Anhelina Kalinina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

WTA Parma
24.09.22	Federica Urgesi - Maria Lourdes Carle	0:2

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