Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Trieste, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 July 2026, Tuesday


	Federico Bondioli		Joel Schwaerzler

	1	2
			Watch
	2.30	1.55	Watch
	2.45	1.52	Watch
	2.45	1.57
	2.48	1.46	Watch
	2.35	1.56	Watch
	2.42	1.50	Watch
	2.35	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.42)	1.53 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federico Bondioli
38.9%

Joel Schwaerzler
61.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Bondioli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Joel Schwaerzler has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Federico Bondioli aligns with the current prediction.

The ML Model estimate for Joel Schwaerzler aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Federico Bondioli - Joel Schwaerzler Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bondioli will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Schwaerzler will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schwaerzler: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bondioli (votes: 1 - 50%). Schwaerzler (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bondioli is ranked ATP: 363. Schwaerzler is ranked ATP: 177.

Both players are currently in poor form.

Schwaerzler may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Schwaerzler is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Bondioli
ATP Challenger
30.06.26	Federico Bondioli - Inaki Montes De La Torre	1:2 ✺
ATP Mallorca
20.06.26	Adam Walton - Federico Bondioli	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.06.26	Marco Cecchinato - Federico Bondioli	2:0 ✺
16.06.26	Alvaro Guillen Meza - Federico Bondioli	1:2 ✺
11.06.26	Jesper De Jong - Federico Bondioli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL
- Joel Schwaerzler
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Christopher OConnell	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.06.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Matej Dodig	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Pol Martin Tiffon - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
26.05.26	Enrico Dalla Valle - Joel Schwaerzler	1:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
20.05.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Roman Safiullin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLWL

Federico Bondioli - Joel Schwaerzler: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide