Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Merida (Mexico), clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday


	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves		Christian Garin

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
			Watch
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.35	1.58	Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.31	1.57	Watch
	2.36	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.45)	1.53 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
39%

Christian Garin
61%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Christian Garin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Meligeni is ranked ATP: 176. Garin is ranked ATP: 136.

Meligeni is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Garin is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Meligeni could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Garin will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
ATP Challenger
21.03.25	Juan Carlos Prado Angelo - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Patrick Maloney - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	0:2 ✺
18.03.25	Rodrigo Alujas - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
26.02.25	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Francisco Comesana	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLW
- Christian Garin
ATP Challenger
21.03.25	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Petr Nesterov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
18.03.25	Miguel Tobon - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
12.03.25	Jakub Mensik - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.25	Christian Garin - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WWWLL

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