Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tenerife, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tenerife 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	17:50	Veikkaus TV


	Francesco Maestrelli		George Loffhagen

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	1.75	1.95	Watch
	1.8	2.1
	1.32	3.17	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.77	1.92	Watch
	1.9	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.07)	2.09 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
54.6%

George Loffhagen
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.6%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

64.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francesco Maestrelli's performance.

George Loffhagen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and George Loffhagen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-19.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesco Maestrelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for George Loffhagen than the current prediction. (+19.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that George Loffhagen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Francesco Maestrelli - George Loffhagen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Maestrelli (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Maestrelli (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francesco Maestrelli will win (35 of 35 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francesco Maestrelli will win (40 of 40 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 42 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 117. Loffhagen is ranked ATP: 205.

Maestrelli is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Loffhagen has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maestrelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maestrelli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
04.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
21.01.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Novak Djokovic	0:3 ✺
19.01.26	Terence Atmane - Francesco Maestrelli	2:3 ✺
14.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLWW
- George Loffhagen
ATP Challenger
04.02.26	Jacopo Vasami - George Loffhagen	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - George Loffhagen	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	George Loffhagen - Nishesh Basavareddy	1:2 ✺
13.01.26	Yoshihito Nishioka - George Loffhagen	Nishioka Y. retired ✺
11.01.26	Justin Engel - George Loffhagen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWL?W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
31.07.25	Francesco Maestrelli - George Loffhagen	2:0

Francesco Maestrelli - George Loffhagen