Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 14 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Dusan Lajovic		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.77	2	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.74	2.11	Watch
	1.71	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.5)	2.05 ↓ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dusan Lajovic
54.4%

Francesco Maestrelli
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dusan Lajovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dusan Lajovic's form might have worsened.

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francesco Maestrelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dusan Lajovic than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dusan Lajovic, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francesco Maestrelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Dusan Lajovic - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Lajovic (2.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Dusan Lajovic will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dusan Lajovic will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lajovic (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Maestrelli (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lajovic is ranked ATP: 125. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 141.

Now, both players are in good form.

Maestrelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lajovic won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dusan Lajovic
ATP Australian Open
13.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Murphy Cassone	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Facundo Diaz Acosta	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Kyrian Jacquet	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Justin Engel	2:0 ✺
05.01.26	Dusan Lajovic - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWLWW
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Australian Open
13.01.26	Thiago Seyboth Wild - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Lorenzo Giustino - Francesco Maestrelli	0:2 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
03.01.26	Yi Zhou - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
23.11.25	Marko Topo - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
19.06.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Dusan Lajovic	0:2

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