Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: San Marino, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Francesco Maestrelli		Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.65	2.10
	1.67	2.08	Watch
	1.72	2.24
	1.65	2.13	Watch
	1.68	2.2
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.67	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.56)	2.13 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
56.1%

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Francesco Maestrelli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Francesco Maestrelli - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino Samudio Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Maestrelli will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Varillas will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Varillas: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Varillas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 149. Varillas is ranked ATP: 274.

Recent form of Maestrelli has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Varillas is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Varillas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Maestrelli will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Varillas will win today's game, with odds of 2.22.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 58.95%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
28.07.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Lukas Neumayer	2:0 ✺
30.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Ognjen Milic	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
22.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Max Basing	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.06.26	Alexis Galarneau - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
09.06.26	Francesco Maestrelli - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLLL
- Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio
ATP Challenger
28.07.26	Jacopo Vasami - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
27.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Francesco Forti	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Stefan Latinovic	2:0 ✺
20.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Alexander Donski	0:2 ✺
19.07.26	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Gabi Adrian Boitan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWLW

Francesco Maestrelli - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide