Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN
Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Canada	RDS App
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Mexico	ESPN
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
New-zealand	Sky Sport NOW
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Peru	ESPN
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN USA
Venezuela	ESPN


	Francis Tiafoe		Francisco Comesana

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.39	3.05	Watch
	1.41	2.91	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.39	3.06	Watch
	1.37	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.09)	3.02 ↓ (5.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
68.5%

Francisco Comesana
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Francis Tiafoe's form might have worsened.

Francisco Comesana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francisco Comesana's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Francis Tiafoe - Francisco Comesana Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Comesana will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francis Tiafoe will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 34. Comesana is ranked ATP: 68.

Tiafoe is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tiafoe is seen as the favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jason Kubler	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
07.12.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
04.12.25	Francis Tiafoe - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WLWWW
- Francisco Comesana
ATP Australian Open
17.01.26	Patrick Kypson - Francisco Comesana	1:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
13.01.26	Ben Shelton - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Francisco Comesana - Valentin Royer	2:0 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
06.01.26	Juncheng Shang - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Paris
28.10.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Francisco Comesana	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLL

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