Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday


	Francisco Cerundolo		Jack Draper

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.4	1.55	Watch
	2.7	1.53
	2.73	1.43	Watch
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.51	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.94)	1.53 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francisco Cerundolo
37.5%

Jack Draper
62.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

67.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Jack Draper has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francisco Cerundolo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jack Draper could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Francisco Cerundolo - Jack Draper Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cerundolo will win (votes: 14 - 70%). Draper will win (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerundolo: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Draper (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5 Games - Cerundolo (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerundolo (votes: 7 - 70%). Draper (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 20. Draper is ranked ATP: 14.

Cerundolo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Draper has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Draper may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Draper is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cerundolo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
28.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Emilio Nava	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
18.02.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Thiago Augustin Tirante	Cerundolo F. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWW?
- Jack Draper
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Jack Draper	1:2 ✺
ATP Dubai
25.02.26	Arthur Rinderknech - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Quentin Halys - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
06.02.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Jack Draper	Canceled ✺
05.02.26	Viktor Durasovic - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLW?W

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
13.09.24	Jack Draper - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2
ATP Lyon
25.05.23	Jack Draper - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2

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