Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Maia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday


	Gastao Elias		Henrique Rocha

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.6	1.42
	2.54	1.54
	2.36	1.52	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.54	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (1.67)	1.47 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gastao Elias
36.5%

Henrique Rocha
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gastao Elias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gastao Elias's form might have worsened.

Henrique Rocha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henrique Rocha's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (+18.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gastao Elias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henrique Rocha than the current prediction. (-18.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henrique Rocha, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Gastao Elias - Henrique Rocha Predictions

Users Predictions: Henrique Rocha will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Henrique Rocha will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Elias is ranked ATP: 380. Rocha is ranked ATP: 153.

Elias has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rocha is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Elias may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rocha is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Rocha will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Elias won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gastao Elias
ITF Tournaments
18.11.25	Tiago Torres - Gastao Elias	Canceled ✺
12.11.25	Rafael Izquierdo Luque - Gastao Elias	2:1 ✺
11.11.25	Tomas Luis - Gastao Elias	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
31.10.25	Alec Deckers - Gastao Elias	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?LWLW
- Henrique Rocha
ATP Challenger
08.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Sho Shimabukuro	2:1 ✺
07.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Frederico Ferreira Silva	2:0 ✺
06.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
04.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Renta Tokuda	2:0 ✺
03.11.25	Henrique Rocha - Kokoro Isomura	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.05.25	Gastao Elias - Henrique Rocha	2:1
05.11.24	Gastao Elias - Henrique Rocha	0:2

Gastao Elias - Henrique Rocha: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide