Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia (Spain) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 6 October 2024, Sunday


	Gastao Elias		Nicolas Alvarez Varona

	1	2
			Watch
	2.5	1.45
	2.55	1.46
	2.46	1.52
	2.57	1.47	Watch
	2.62	1.44	Watch
	2.51	1.49	Watch
	2.55	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.07)	1.47 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gastao Elias
36.7%

Nicolas Alvarez Varona
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gastao Elias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gastao Elias's form might have worsened.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nicolas Alvarez Varona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gastao Elias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Alvarez Varona than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nicolas Alvarez Varona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Gastao Elias - Nicolas Alvarez Varona Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Elias will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Alvarez Varona will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Elias is ranked ATP: 305. Alvarez Varona is ranked ATP: 434.

Recent matches Elias is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alvarez Varona is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alvarez Varona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Our prediction for today's Alvarez Varona to win the game is with odds 1.64.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gastao Elias
ATP Challenger
01.10.24	Joao Domingues - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
23.09.24	Raphael Collignon - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
17.09.24	Gastao Elias - Luka Pavlovic	Elias G. retired ✺
04.09.24	Roberto Carballes Baena - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
02.09.24	Gastao Elias - Inaki Montes De La Torre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LL?LW
- Nicolas Alvarez Varona
ITF Tournaments
05.10.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Mathys Erhard	Alvarez Varona N. retired ✺
04.10.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Nicholas David Ionel	2:0 ✺
03.10.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Benjamin Winter Lopez	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Lorenzo Giustino	1:2 ✺
28.09.24	Nicolas Alvarez Varona - Iliyan Radulov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 ?WWLW

Gastao Elias - Nicolas Alvarez Varona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide