Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cherbourg, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday


	Gauthier Onclin		Lucas Poullain

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
			Watch
	1.4	2.65
	1.51	2.69
	1.43	2.62	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.41	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.72)	2.67 ↑ (1.98)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gauthier Onclin
65.1%

Lucas Poullain
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gauthier Onclin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gauthier Onclin's performance.

Lucas Poullain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucas Poullain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gauthier Onclin than the current prediction. (-15.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gauthier Onclin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Poullain than the current prediction. (+15.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucas Poullain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Gauthier Onclin - Lucas Poullain Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Onclin (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Poullain (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Poullain (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Poullain (4.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gauthier Onclin will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Onclin (votes: 2 - 40%). Poullain (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Onclin is ranked ATP: 273. Poullain is ranked ATP: 421.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Onclin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Onclin won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Gauthier Onclin - the odds 1.72 are the expected chance of winning is 53.51%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gauthier Onclin
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Gauthier Onclin - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Tiago Pereira	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Vladislav Melnic	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Oleksii Krutykh	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Gauthier Onclin - Lui Maxted	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWW
- Lucas Poullain
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Tom Paris - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Lucas Poullain - Alex Knaff	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Lucas Poullain - Alexis Gautier	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Lucas Poullain - Titouan Droguet	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Norbert Gombos - Lucas Poullain	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
11.06.25	Lucas Poullain - Gauthier Onclin	0:2
ITF Tournaments
22.01.23	Gauthier Onclin - Lucas Poullain	2:0

Gauthier Onclin - Lucas Poullain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide