Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 September 2026, Tuesday


	Goncalo Marques		Petr Nesterov

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.65	1.42
	2.75	1.43	Watch
	2.85	1.44
	2.69	1.41	Watch
	2.65	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.19)	1.43 ↓ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goncalo Marques
34.6%

Petr Nesterov
65.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

62.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goncalo Marques has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Goncalo Marques's form might have worsened.

Petr Nesterov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Petr Nesterov's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Goncalo Marques than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Petr Nesterov than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Goncalo Marques - Petr Nesterov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Marques is ranked ATP: 652., and Nesterov is ranked ATP: 301..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Marques could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Nesterov holding a narrow advantage.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Last Results with these Odds

Petr Nesterov - the odds 1.59 are the expected chance of winning is 57.94%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goncalo Marques
ATP Challenger
28.09.26	Goncalo Marques - Christian Langmo	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Georgii Kravchenko - Goncalo Marques	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.09.26	Lui Maxted - Goncalo Marques	Marques G. Retired ✺
13.09.26	Patrick Schoen - Goncalo Marques	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Goncalo Marques - Fausto Tabacco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WW?LW
- Petr Nesterov
ATP Challenger
28.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Marko Topo	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Giorgio Tabacco	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Radu Albot	Canceled ✺
22.09.26	Carlos Taberner - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
01.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Yanaki Milev	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WW?LL

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