Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open - Qualification, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)


	Gustavo Heide		Jay Clarke

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.8	1.91
	1.8	1.97	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.85	1.98	Watch
	1.8	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.1)	1.92 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gustavo Heide
51.5%

Jay Clarke
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gustavo Heide's performance.

Jay Clarke has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jay Clarke might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Gustavo Heide - Jay Clarke Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Heide (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Clarke (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Gustavo Heide will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Heide is ranked ATP: 239. Clarke is ranked ATP: 174.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Clarke will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Jay Clarke - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.7%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
04.01.26	Gustavo Heide - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Andrea Collarini	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Daniel Dutra da Silva - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
21.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Nicolas Kicker	Kicker N. retired ✺
20.11.25	Mateus Alves - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWW?W
- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	Jay Clarke - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Mert Alkaya - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Zach Stephens - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vadym Ursu - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
26.11.25	Dinko Dinev - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWW

Gustavo Heide - Jay Clarke: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide