Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Florianopolis, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 November 2025, Thursday


	Mateus Alves		Gustavo Heide

	1	2
	3.5	1.29	Watch
			Watch
	3.5	1.26
	3.87	1.22	Watch
	3.49	1.26	Watch
	3.71	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.72)	1.26 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mateus Alves
25.9%

Gustavo Heide
74.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mateus Alves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mateus Alves's form might have worsened.

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gustavo Heide's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mateus Alves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gustavo Heide, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mateus Alves - Gustavo Heide Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alves is ranked ATP: 476. Heide is ranked ATP: 309.

In recent matches, Alves has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Heide is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Heide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Heide is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alves won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Gustavo Heide - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 65.9%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mateus Alves
ATP Challenger
17.11.25	Dmitry Popko - Mateus Alves	Popko D. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.11.25	Mateus Alves - Pedro Boscardin Dias	0:2 ✺
06.11.25	Mateus Alves - Yassine Dlimi	2:1 ✺
05.11.25	Mateus Alves - Victor Bini	2:0 ✺
28.10.25	Mateus Alves - Joao Eduardo Schiessl	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 ?LWWL
- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
19.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Leonardo Storck Franca	2:0 ✺
14.11.25	Ignacio Buse - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
12.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
10.11.25	Gustavo Heide - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
02.11.25	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna - Gustavo Heide	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
25.10.24	Gustavo Heide - Mateus Alves	2:1
02.05.22	Mateus Alves - Gustavo Heide	0:2
ITF Tournaments
12.11.21	Mateus Alves - Gustavo Heide	0:2

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