Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Islamabad, hard - Final

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Mert Alkaya		Jay Clarke

	1	2
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.35	1.5	Watch
	2.34	1.53
	2.29	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.3	1.55	Watch
	2.42	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.44)	1.53 ↑ (1.47)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mert Alkaya
39.2%

Jay Clarke
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mert Alkaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Jay Clarke has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mert Alkaya than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jay Clarke than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Mert Alkaya - Jay Clarke Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alkaya (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Clarke (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jay Clarke will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alkaya (votes: 1 - 50%). Clarke (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alkaya is ranked ATP: 473. Clarke is ranked ATP: 200.

Alkaya has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Clarke is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Clarke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Clarke could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Clarke will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Jay Clarke - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 62.4%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mert Alkaya
ATP Challenger
29.11.25	Mert Alkaya - Denis Yevseyev	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Elias Ymer - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
27.11.25	Gian Luca Tanner - Mert Alkaya	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Samir Iftikhar - Mert Alkaya	0:2 ✺
18.11.25	Mert Alkaya - Jannik Opitz	Alkaya M. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWW?
- Jay Clarke
ATP Challenger
29.11.25	Zach Stephens - Jay Clarke	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vadym Ursu - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
26.11.25	Dinko Dinev - Jay Clarke	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Jay Clarke - Toby Samuel	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Jay Clarke - Mathys Erhard	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLW

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