Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	HBO Max
Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
Denmark	HBO Max
Finland	HBO Max
France	HBO Max
Hungary	HBO Max
Moldova	HBO Max
Montenegro	HBO Max
Netherlands	HBO Max
North-macedonia	HBO Max
Norway	HBO Max
Poland	HBO Max
Romania	HBO Max
Serbia	HBO Max
Slovenia	HBO Max
Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Hailey Baptiste		Naomi Osaka

	1	2
	4.5	1.2	Watch
	3.9	1.24
	4.4	1.2	Watch
	4.84	1.21
	6.98	1.10	Watch
	4.2	1.22
	4.54	1.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.77 ↑ (3)	1.2 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hailey Baptiste
20.1%

Naomi Osaka
79.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

69%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hailey Baptiste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hailey Baptiste's form might have worsened.

Naomi Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naomi Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hailey Baptiste than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hailey Baptiste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naomi Osaka than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naomi Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Baptiste will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baptiste is ranked WTA: 47. Osaka is ranked WTA: 24.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Baptiste may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Osaka is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baptiste won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hailey Baptiste
WTA US Open
26.08.25	Hailey Baptiste - Katerina Siniakova	2:0 ✺
WTA Cleveland
19.08.25	Anastasia Zakharova - Hailey Baptiste	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Elena Gabriela Ruse - Hailey Baptiste	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
07.08.25	Clervie Ngounoue - Hailey Baptiste	2:1 ✺
WTA Montreal
29.07.25	Elena Rybakina - Hailey Baptiste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWLL
- Naomi Osaka
WTA US Open
26.08.25	Greetje Minnen - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
WTA Cincinnati
09.08.25	Linda Noskova - Naomi Osaka	Canceled ✺
WTA Montreal
07.08.25	Victoria Mboko - Naomi Osaka	2:1 ✺
06.08.25	Naomi Osaka - Clara Tauson	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	Elina Svitolina - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 W?LWW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Miami
22.03.25	Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka	1:2
WTA Auckland
02.01.25	Naomi Osaka - Hailey Baptiste	2:1

Hailey Baptiste - Naomi Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide