Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Hayato Matsuoka		Maximus Jones

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.71	2.02	Watch
	1.85	2.03
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.7	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.54)	2.01 ↓ (2.28)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
53.4%

Maximus Jones
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hayato Matsuoka's form might have worsened.

Maximus Jones has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maximus Jones's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maximus Jones than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Hayato Matsuoka - Maximus Jones Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Matsuoka will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Jones will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Matsuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 360. Jones is ranked ATP: 442.

Matsuoka is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jones is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Matsuoka could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.69%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
04.05.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Yusuke Takahashi	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Qian Sun	2:1 ✺
29.04.26	Keegan Smith - Hayato Matsuoka	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLWW
- Maximus Jones
ATP Challenger
20.04.26	Mark Lajal - Maximus Jones	2:1 ✺
16.04.26	Sanhui Shin - Maximus Jones	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Omar Jasika - Maximus Jones	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Maximus Jones - Philip Sekulic	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Blake Ellis - Maximus Jones	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL

Hayato Matsuoka - Maximus Jones: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide