Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jiujiang, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 April 2026, Wednesday


	Keegan Smith		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
	2.07	1.81
	1.99	1.73	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.92	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 (1.97)	1.78 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
47.4%

Hayato Matsuoka
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keegan Smith has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Keegan Smith - Hayato Matsuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Smith will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Matsuoka will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smith: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Smith (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 302. Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 366.

Smith is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Matsuoka is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Matsuoka will win today's game, with odds of 1.93.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ATP Challenger
16.04.26	Keegan Smith - Li Tu	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Keegan Smith - Enzo Aguiard	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Pavel Kotov - Keegan Smith	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Alafia Ayeni - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL
- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
27.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Omar Jasika	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Tristan Schoolkate	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Kasidit Samrej - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Tai Sach - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLWW

Keegan Smith - Hayato Matsuoka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide