Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nonthaburi - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	Hayato Matsuoka		Thanapet Chanta

	1	2
			Watch
	1.28	3.2
	1.33	3.05	Watch
	1.41	2.75	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.35	2.94	Watch
	1.33	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.51)	2.97 ↑ (2.41)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
68.7%

Thanapet Chanta
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hayato Matsuoka's performance.

Thanapet Chanta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thanapet Chanta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hayato Matsuoka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thanapet Chanta than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thanapet Chanta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hayato Matsuoka - Thanapet Chanta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 363. Chanta is ranked ATP: 823.

Recent performances by Matsuoka have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chanta is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Matsuoka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 61.51%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
24.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Marc Polmans	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	James Duckworth - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Tai Sach - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Cruz Hewitt - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWWW
- Thanapet Chanta
ITF Tournaments
02.12.25	Daniel Khazime - Thanapet Chanta	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Arthur Weber - Thanapet Chanta	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Lorenzo Lorusso - Thanapet Chanta	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Thanapet Chanta - Pawit Sornlaksup	2:0 ✺
26.11.25	Thanapet Chanta - Sam Ryan Ziegann	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWWW

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