Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Hayato Matsuoka		James McCabe

	1	2
			Watch
	1.62	2.10
	1.66	2.08	Watch
	1.64	2.13	Watch
	1.63	2.20
	1.63	2.15	Watch
	1.60	2.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.84)	2.13 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
56.6%

James McCabe
43.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hayato Matsuoka's performance.

James McCabe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and James McCabe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hayato Matsuoka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for James McCabe than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that James McCabe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Matsuoka will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 247., and McCabe is ranked ATP: 259..

Matsuoka has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

McCabe has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Matsuoka could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Matsuoka has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:0 (averaging 2:0 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Qian Sun	2:1 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
23.09.26	Taro Daniel - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Arthur Weber - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Lloyd Harris	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Jake Delaney	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLL
- James McCabe
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Siddhant Banthia - James McCabe	Banthia S. Retired ✺
30.09.26	James McCabe - Federico Cina	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.26	Lukas Neumayer - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.08.26	Gauthier Onclin - James McCabe	Canceled ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.08.26	James McCabe - Noah Zamora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 ?LL?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
26.03.26	James McCabe - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2
21.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe	2:0

Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe