Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Playford 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 November 2025, Monday


	Hayato Matsuoka		Marc Polmans

	1	2
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.5	1.47	Watch
	2.57	1.52
	1.55	2.32	Watch
	2.62	1.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.84)	1.64 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hayato Matsuoka
40.8%

Marc Polmans
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hayato Matsuoka's form might have worsened.

Marc Polmans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marc Polmans's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hayato Matsuoka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marc Polmans than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Marc Polmans, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Hayato Matsuoka - Marc Polmans Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Matsuoka will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Polmans will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hayato Matsuoka will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 483. Polmans is ranked ATP: 421.

Matsuoka is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Polmans's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Polmans may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Hayato Matsuoka - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Marc Polmans - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	James Duckworth - Hayato Matsuoka	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - James McCabe	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Tai Sach - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
18.11.25	Cruz Hewitt - Hayato Matsuoka	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Hayato Matsuoka - Bernard Tomic	Tomic B. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWW?
- Marc Polmans
ATP Challenger
17.11.25	Tung-Lin Wu - Marc Polmans	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Marc Polmans - Leo Vithoontien	2:0 ✺
15.11.25	Marc Polmans - Matt Hulme	2:0 ✺
12.11.25	Marc Polmans - Alex Bolt	0:2 ✺
10.11.25	Marc Polmans - Aryan Shah	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLW

Hayato Matsuoka - Marc Polmans: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide